Climate Mitigation: What Next?

Efforts to put in place measures to mitigate predicted global warming are faltering. This blog looks at possible ways to restore momentum

Background
International efforts to curb the growth in emissions that propel global warming appear to be coming apart. COP 29 was widely viewed as a disappointment and throwing a question over future meetings in this format. Trump is not expected to offer any support during his second term. On the contrary he is expected to emphasise the competitive advantage to the US economy of its oil and gas resources. At the same Europe appears to be more aware of the costs of mitigation. The slowdown in the German economy, hitherto the main engine of growth in the EU, makes cost reduction measures a priority. The UK maintains its emission reduction targets for now, but they will be vulnerable if the new Labour government cannot stem the immediate flow of criticism of the cost and inflationary effects of its economic policies. China continues to build new coal burning power stations. There is therefore a need to find ways to offset the loss of momentum.
 
Smaller groups
One path ahead is for smaller groups of countries to work together on shared objectives of common concern. An example is provided by the 8 countries (ACTO) sharing the Amazon forest that came together for the first time in 14 years in 2023. They did not reach any agreement on the halting of deforestation. But it is to be hoped that it is the restart of a process leading to common actions. A follow-up science committee meeting annually was agreed. Differences of perspective within larger groups of countries such as the G20 makes meaningful agreement much more difficult to reach and implementation unlikely. China and Russia call for a new international order including the possibility of a BRICS currency to better reflect the changing balance of powers in the world and the decline of US hegemony. Such calls go back at least to the 1970s when the OPEC cartel challenged post war commodity trading arrangements and dollar dominance. As subsequent history shows it may take decades to move from the moment of challenge to any new settlement of relationships. Nor are the eventual outcomes easily predictable. Few in the mid 1970s would have predicted another 50 years of dollar dominance.
 
Intermediate objectives
The setting of emissions reduction targets by given dates has been called an ‘end of pipe’ approach. It represents the outcome of several different types of measures. A second path is to focus on the more promising of these individual measures and downgrade the ‘end of pipe’ objective. For example, a number of countries are working on the development of small nuclear reactors as an alternative to the construction of traditional nuclear power stations with their associated cost overruns and construction delays. There may be other potential developments, for example, in battery storage and in the field of climate engineering that deserve a more focussed attention.
 
Linked objectives
One troubling aspect of the present scene is that public support for emissions mitigation measures may be diminished or lost as people look at the increase in their household heating and cooling charges, pay congestion charges and air travel add-ons. One possible way to maintain public support is to link actions that have climate benefits with other objectives that are likely to have strong public support. For example, the reforestation efforts around the preservation of habitats for gorillas is a win-win for both species preservation and the climate. There may be other examples particularly in the area of reforestation.
 
Private sector leveraging
International negotiations have been soured by questions about who pays how much. In response to complaints about languishing official commitments it has been argued that a focus on official aid sources downplays the potential role of private investors. Again, there is a long history behind the efforts of official bilateral and multilateral lenders to leverage up private capital. Certain techniques, notably debt to equity conversions, are particularly liable to misuse over the valuation of both the debt component (that can be overvalued) and the equity counterpart (that can be undervalued). The role of side-payments is also a potential factor muddying the waters. Sources of independent financial advice for borrowers will need to be strengthened.
 
Forensic examination of prediction models
The justification of mitigation measures rests on the calculation that the costs to societies will be hugely outweighed by the benefits of emission reductions on the dynamics of global warming. In the light of faltering support for measures that increase costs the message about the cost /benefit calculation needs to be reinforced. The requirement is for a forensic examination of prediction models by scientists outside and independent of those centres receiving funding for their work in the environmental area. All prediction models are sensitive to estimations of the historical baseline, to key assumptions about relationships between a few main variables and to different estimates of future exponentials. The corroboration that comes from different models arriving at the same conclusions is nullified if the different models share critical assumptions in key areas. The main models in use need critical outside review so that the message about benefits outweighing costs carries renewed persuasive force.