Unless there is a military breakthrough for either the Ukraine or Russia that enables one side to claim ‘victory’, sooner or later this year, negotiations between Russia and the Ukraine to end their conflict will become necessary. Continued grinding conflict will look increasingly unappealing to them compared with the possibility of a return to some kind of normalcy. Neither do Ukraine’s allies want to run a permanent and continual risk of the war becoming an even more devastating conflict between Russia and NATO. This blog looks at some of the theoretical options.

The next British general election is expected next year (2024). The common assumption is that the Labour Party, under Keir Starmer, will win a comfortable victory. This blog looks at what might be on the campaign agenda and what will likely not be, and what should be on the agenda but also will likely not be.

This blog looks at possible scenarios for 2023. Scenarios are not predictions. They simply indicate topics that should be factored into the strategic thinking of Boards in the private sector and those with decision-making authority in government.

In recent years the idea that governments can use ‘nudges’ to influence how people behave has become very fashionable. A ‘nudge’ can be defined as a means of influencing individual and social behaviour, for example through the provision of information, that does not involve official coercion. A ‘nudge’ is contrasted with a law or regulation that must be obeyed, or a tax that must be paid, and that involve penalties if they are disregarded. This blog contends that the experience with behaviour in the COVID pandemic suggests that the claims in favour of ‘nudges’ have been greatly exaggerated.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1980s accompanied by the dynamic engagement of China in international trade and supply chains ushered in a period of optimism about the global order. It has only recently begun to dissipate. Now, shifts in great power relationships are once again generating conflict. At the same time, there is also a growing awareness that there remains a fundamental difference in the values involved in the domestic organisation of power in democracies compared with autocracies which then spills over into differences about the values that apply in the global space. Optimism may have gone, but there is considerable confusion about how to react to the new setting.

Russia's invasion of the Ukraine has upended what we have come to regard as the 'normal' relationship between politics and regulation. It involves a response that only governments can make - not regulators. The inexorable rise of what is termed 'the regulatory state' seems to have come to a halt. This blog looks at the new policy environment and at how far we can expect the relationship between politicians  and regulators eventually to swing back towards regulation as the preferred tool.  

This blog looks at the idea of the ‘Anglosphere’. The most recent use of the term has come in the context of the Sept 2021 AUKUS security agreement on nuclear submarine, AI and other technologies, between Australia, the UK and the US. The Anglosphere is a term without a clear and fixed definition and with many ambiguities around the use of the term. This blog looks at the different components of what might be conveyed by its use.

With democratic forms of government seemingly in retreat, this blog looks at different approaches to visualising the connection between the values and beliefs held in a society with democratic forms of government.

​It is an axiom of democratic systems of government that public authority should always be subject to oversight so that those entrusted with authority do not abuse or overstep their power. Thus, legislatures establish committees of their members to watch over the executive departments of government, and judiciaries stand ready to review acts of both the executive and legislative branches.
 
This traditional kind of model still provides the backbone of democratic oversight. However, a newer and different kind of review process has become established to watch over key functions of government. Regulatory review has become established to watch over the regulatory functions of government (see blog of dec 1 2021) and budget review processes have been established to watch over the fiscal functions of government. What regulatory review and fiscal review share in common is the need for specialised knowledge and expertise to carry out the review. 
 
This blog looks briefly at fiscal review. It asks whether it offers more general lessons for review functions. 

As the world recovers from the COVID pandemic, cities are refilling again with office workers, students, commuters, and tourists. The crowds once again provide a daily illustration of the enormous social diversity to be found in urban environments. They also carry with them the differences of dress and appearance that offer the superficial and sometimes misleading symbols of social differences.
 
Some people clearly enjoy the spectrum of diversity, seek it out and flourish in it. But for others it is an unsettling patchwork and a source of stress. Democracies often struggle in the face of deep social differences. Instead of reacting positively to the challenges of the modern world, people may react protectively and defensively. Essential democratic practices such as civility, consent to loss in electoral contests and acceptance of the system of rulemaking despite disagreement with particular pieces of law-making, all come under pressure. The ability to cooperate and to take collective action is blocked. Tempers rise. Democracies decline. 
 
This blog looks at the nature of the challenge and possible responses.