 The choices
COP26 in November 2021 was hailed as ‘game changing’ by Boris Johnson and as a ‘fragile win’ by the Chair of the Conference. The final communique referred to the ‘phase down’ of coal but provided little that was concrete and measurable. This blog looks at the options going forward in the absence of a convincing fully multilaterally agreed action program.
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 There is an important group of people in both the private and public sectors whose job it is to scan the horizon for possible risks that will disrupt established ways of doing things. Disruption can be positive and provide new opportunities. For example, the adaptation to climate change will give a major impetus to research and development and new technologies in areas such as batteries, hydrogen use and carbon capture. Horizon scanners will however be particularly concerned about imminent risks with a large downside. This blog looks only at imminent geopolitical risks with a huge downside potential.
 Regulation is a hallmark of modern government. Societies can help achieve collective aims through informal social norms, by making laws, by spending money from taxes or borrowings, or by regulation. Increasingly, regulation has become the instrument of choice. Regulation is chosen often, but the question is how far it is chosen well.
 We seem to be living in a less ideological world. At the end of the 20thcentury the collapse of Soviet Marxism, coupled with the turn of China’s government to a more market-responsive form of economic direction, seemed to mark a turn away from ideology. Some saw ‘neo-liberalism’ becoming the new ideology. That too seems to have faded after the financial crisis of 2008 and the COVID crisis. This blog looks at how far ideology is still with us and how far it has truly vanished
 Democracy is currently in decline in the world. This blog looks at the limitations of three common ways of visualising democratic forms of government. In view of their limitations, it suggests that we need to give much greater focus on how to nurture the underlying social attitudes needed to sustain democracies.
 There are doubtless many lessons in many different areas of public policy that will be drawn from the experience around the world of dealing with the COVID 19 crisis. This blog looks at lessons around the diffusion of public policy.
 Background
Since the Thatcher/Reagan reforms of the 1970s and 1980s and the collapse of the Soviet Union there has been an orthodox belief in favour of allowing pricing signals to guide markets. Prices serve a ‘discovery’ purpose, steering markets to produce what people want and providing incentives for innovation and change. This orthodoxy is once again under challenge. The goal of decarbonising the global economy and to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050 or 2060 is leading to a return of ‘command and control’ measures to guide economic choices. The direction is clear from the 'Roadmap' set out by the International Energy Agency in a report in May, 2021. We are likely to hear much more about command and control in November on the occasion of COP 26, the UN follow-up meeting to the 2016 Paris Agreement and the 1992 UN Framework Convention. This blog looks at the return of command and control.  There is a well justified concern about backsliding in democracies. In central Europe the concerns centre on the erosion of the independence of the judiciary; in the US, backsliding has taken the form of a loss of underpinning conventions such as moderation, civility and loser’s consent (see posts of 9/14/2018 & 9/1/2020). Such lapses may just be temporary. However, a lot depends on the diagnosis. This blog looks at different diagnoses.
Brexit represents a failure of the UK’s political elite. It also represents a failure of the EU. The UK was always an awkward member of the EU. Nevertheless, rupture was not intended or sought by either side. Cameron triggered the referendum on membership in order to call the bluff of UKIP and expected to win. It became an act of self-defenestration.
The EU has responded defensively to the UK’s departure. It has stressed the importance of a ‘rules-based’ union where there are no departures from a ‘level playing field’. The rule book has become an end in itself rather than a means to an end. It has established a new relationship with the UK based as much on deterring others from following the UK as on maximising the mutual benefits from close ties. This blog looks at the outlines of a different kind of EU response. It asks whether the departure of a major member suggests that the EU should engage in some introspection and rethinking of the kind of union it wants.  In the COVID 19 pandemic the medical experts gave what they viewed as valid advice to the public on epidemiological grounds, but politicians pronounced on public policy in the light of what they thought would be acceptable to the public. Each felt that they were justified in what they were saying and doing, even though it led to conflicting and confusing signals to the public.
The handling of COVID illustrates how we seem to need some kind of generally applicable discourse, or one authoritative institution, for arriving at public policies that will avoid confusion around what is ‘valid’ or ‘acceptable’ or ‘justified’. This blog looks at the sources of the confusion and the search for a more unified approach. |
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